Dillon looking to win truck title at Homestead

Autoracing Betting Lines

11/16/2011 - Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date: Friday, November 18. Race: Ford 200. Site: Homestead-Miami Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start time: 8:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 134. Miles: 201. 2010 winner: Kyle Busch. Television: Speed. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.

The Camping World Truck Series will kick off NASCAR's "championship weekend" at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Friday night's 200-mile race should be an entertaining one, with three drivers still in title contention. Austin Dillon currently holds a 20-point lead over Johnny Sauter and a 28-point advantage over James Buescher.

Dillon -- the grandson of NASCAR team owner Richard Childress -- is attempting to become the youngest series champion at 21 years of age. He would also be the first driver to win the series' rookie-of-the-year title and clinch the championship in consecutive seasons.

If Dillon finishes 16th or better at Homestead, he will wrap up the title, regardless of any other driver's performance. He would also clinch it if he finishes 17th or better with at least one lap led...or 18th or better with the most laps led.

Dillon finished 31st in his first race at Homestead last year. He started on the pole and led 11 laps but was involved in an on-track incident during the closing laps of the event.

"The pressure isn't too bad, actually," Dillon said. "I like racing at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and my finish last year doesn't reflect how good our team is at that track. We led laps and had one of the fastest trucks all day but were involved in a late-race incident and it cost us a good finish. We know we are capable of doing what we need to do there. I hope we are celebrating at the end of the race."

Dillon has posted two wins -- Nashville and Chicago -- and 15 top-10 finishes so far this year. His two DNFs during the season came at Daytona and Michigan.

Sauter has scored two top-10 finishes in four starts at Homestead. He placed third in last year's race here.

"All you can ask for is a shot, and I'm privileged right now," Sauter said. "It's a pretty tall order, 20 points, but there are a lot of competitive trucks out there. It's a full field and a tough road for anybody to hoe. We just need to sit on the pole, lead laps and win. That's the coolest thing about racing; you just never know how it's all going to turn out."

Buescher has finished either 18th or 19th in his three races at Homestead.

"The team is going to Homestead-Miami Speedway with one goal, which is to win the race," Buescher said. "We have had a great year, and I can think of nothing better than to cap it off with a win. We know we have to get the most points we can in order to have a shot to win the championship. We have proven we never give up."

Had he not failed to qualify for the February 25 race at Phoenix, Buescher might have been in better contention to win the truck championship. Buescher has recorded 19 top-10 finishes in 23 starts. He has yet to win a race in the series.

Ron Hornaday Jr. would have been in the title fight at Homestead as well had it not been for Kyle Busch intentionally wrecking him in the early going of the November 4 race at Texas. Hornaday trailed Dillon by 15 points heading into Texas, but after his 34th-place finish there, he dropped to 48 points out of the lead.

"I wish we were in the middle of the championship battle, but we are not, so we will race hard and do what we have to do for the win," Hornaday said.

Hornaday will celebrate a career milestone at Homestead, as he will make his 300th start in the series. This will also be Hornaday's last race with Kevin Harvick Inc. KHI is in its last year of truck competition.

Kevin Harvick's win at Texas allowed KHI's No.2 team to clinch the owner's championship. Harvick is scheduled to drive the No.2 truck at Homestead.

Busch will not be competing in this race. Denny Hamlin is slated to drive the No.18 truck. Busch won last year's race here.

Forty-three teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 200.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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